Lessons from Canada

Trump could be a toxic liability for other right-wing populists and a lifeline to liberal centrism. In Canada’s first-past-the-post system, social democratic (NDP) voters — and to some extent BQ voters — were vital in clinching seats for the Liberals and defeating a Conservative Party that looked too Trumpian.

Curiously, in this case, Trump’s annexationist threats triggered a wave of Canadian civic and civil patriotism that propelled Carney — a central banker — to power. This suggests that nationalism can cut both ways. In fact, reclaiming an inclusive patriotism is essential for a resurgence of the centre-left.

This was to be expected. When the stakes are so high, centre-left voters — who tend to be more educated and reflective — often look at the bigger picture and use their vote pragmatically. They also have a lot to lose, both materially and culturally. We often forget that the world is far from the dystopian reality painted by the far right. In some ways, we live in the best of times — even if the collective threats have never been more existential.

Still, let’s not forget that Trumpism is also fuelled by liberal detachment from the material aspirations of working-class voters — whether they are white working-class males fetishised by the rabid right, or struggling minority voters and students. In reality, no centre-left party in any advanced democracy can win unless it presents itself as a broad coalition of centrists and progressives. But neither can the political centre hold the fort of decency if it keeps ignoring left-wing voters and their demands.

The idea that a return to the roots will work magic does not hold — and it always raises the question: which and whose roots? But tilting the balance to the left is also key to an enduring alternative to right-wing populism. I am not a big fan of liberal centrism, which to some extent is to blame for the increased economic inequalities that fuel populism. But like many NDP voters, I would never risk throwing the baby (the edifice of a socially liberal society) out with the bathwater.

The lesson from Canada is this: people in liberal democracies like their way of life. They will fight back to defend it. What we can do as leftists is to be part of the global fightback while ensuring that everyone is included, that inequality is recognised as a threat to the democratic consensus, and that our prosperity does not endanger the planet. In short, the greater the number of people who can enjoy the good life, the higher the percentage of educated citizens, and the wider the safety nets, the less anger and the more civility there is.

The problematic aspect of this result is that the Liberals’ success has cannibalised NDP representation — increasing the risk of the Liberals continuing with their ‘business as usual’ attitude.

This raises questions about how leftists should position themselves in the polarity triggered by Trump’s election, in a way that keeps them not just part of the fightback, but also able to channel it in a progressive direction. Bernie Sanders’ and AOC’s anti-oligarchy movement is, in this sense, instructive — a movement that appeals to civic activism but also puts social and ecological justice at the centre of the political agenda.