The current war between Israel and Iran is following a predictable path, with the Iranian regime substantially weakened and Israel asserting itself as the dominant military power in the region—having practically decapitated not just Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, but now also the top military brass of the Islamic Republic. But there is something hollow about this power. It depends on U.S. weapons and the militarisation of Israeli society. It prevents Israel/Palestine from evolving into a multi-ethnic democracy rooted in the region, thereby reinforcing its identity as a settler-colonial outpost in hostile territory. For in this case rather than behaving like a middle eastern state with its long term security in mind, Israel is behaving like the 'zionist entity' which its adversaries condemn. But there is a logic to this. Until Israel accepts the prospect of transforming itself into a land of equal rights for all its inhabitants, it has no choice but to act like an entity rather than a state—one whose survival depends on scorching the earth around it.
Sure, I have no qualms about seeing one of the most brutal and oppressive regimes—which wages war against women, LGBTQ people, leftists and democrats—falling apart. And while am appalled on how anti semitism is invoked at any slight criticism of Israel, the Iranian regime is ideologically antisemetic. But talk of regime change is premature. In the short term, Israeli attacks may well inflame Iranian nationalism, although I’m not sure whether educated and younger Iranians, scarred by the brutality inflicted during recent protests, will rally behind the Ayatollahs.
And while nobody wants to see a nuclear-armed Iran, we should not forget that Israel—currently behaving like a rogue state—is itself a nuclear power. This could send the message that only nuclear weapons can provide Iran with deterrence against Israeli aggression, even though, when the dust settles, it is highly unlikely that Iran will retain any such capability. Moreover, there is no compelling evidence that Iran is any closer to producing nuclear weapons. This raises the question of whether Netanyahu is simply seizing a favourable geopolitical moment—marked by the near elimination of Iranian proxies in the region and by the erratic leadership of Trump, which has given him even more latitude than the Biden administration. It remains mind boggling why Trump has green lighted an Israeli attack while negotiating with the Iranians. This means that either Trump has been outwitted by Netanyahu or that he has been playing with the Iranians.
Furthermore, despite verbal protests by Gulf states like the Saudis, a weakened Iran ultimately serves their interests. Things may get iffy if the war disrupts the global economy and oil prices wreak havoc. There could also be unintended consequences, with Russia—despite being one of Iran's few allies—benefiting from the windfall.
But the saddest thing is that this war has diverted attention from the use of starvation as a weapon in Gaza. For a brief time, even the UK and France began sounding critical of Israel. But that window has now closed, due to the threat Iran is perceived to pose to Israel (even though in this case Israel was clearly the aggressor). This simply shows how easily Western democracies can relegate and forget the lives of Palestinians.