What worries me more about Ed is his illusion that Labour will win on its own and his tribal attacks on the lib dems with whom one day he would have to govern.
David is more pluralistic. His Blairism is obviously a liability. But i am not surprised that non tribalist left wingers like Cruddas are supporting David not Ed.
The problem for Labour is not recapturing the centrist vote...but dealing with the growing independence of the urban middle class vote.
This social class includes a new middle class which is large educated, cosmopolitan, environmentalist, liberal in social values and concerned with social equality but allergic to to workerist slogans and the irrational defense of failed industries and other anachronisms.
The label centrist is too vague to define the new politics emerging in the european mainland.
Perhaps the lib dems who were closest to these instances will be weakened by the coalition cuts (and don't be too sure of that) but if that happens probably the greens if they move the german way could move on occupy that niche. My hunch is that it is going to be coalition politics in the UK as in the rest of Europe.
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David represents the Blairite establishment and this is why I think that the Unions rejected him. Blair is now loathed and despised by many in Britain, especially the left. The growing middle class as you put it will soon be hit by drastic cuts in public spending and I fear a subtle return of Thatcherism in the United Kingdom. Ed could be the right man for the job in this regard.
ReplyDeleteLike his brother, Ed has the brains. Unlike his brother, however, I don't think that Ed is fit for winning elections. We have to wait and see.
Obviously i am no fan of tony blair mainly because of his track record on civil liberties (with the noteable exception of gay rights which improved a lot),Iraq and letting the financial system off any regulation ...
ReplyDeleteHis first term of office was not that bad considering that he introduced a re-distributive windfall tax but he was too close to the city.
He was more concerned on winning the sympathies of the Sun than voters who read the guardian.
So Ed could represent a clean break. My concern is that he seems to believe in the myth of self sufficiency. David seemed to have understood this in a subtle way.
Let's see how Ed will campaign in the referendum on AV...That would be an indication on whether his tribal instincts prevail over the good sense of building an alternative coalition to the present one.